UFC 310 promises an exciting lineup for MMA enthusiasts, with the action kicking off in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event features 14 thrilling bouts, including a flyweight title fight between reigning champion Alexandre Pantoja and former Rizin champion Kai Asakura. As with any major UFC event, betting plays a crucial role in the buildup, and this card is no exception. Our experts have analyzed the matchups and identified three key fights with significant betting value.

1. Aljamain Sterling vs. Mosvar Evloev

One of the most intriguing matchups at UFC 310 is the battle between Aljamain Sterling and undefeated contender Mosvar Evloev. Despite being on the preliminary card, this fight holds major title implications. Sterling, known for his exceptional wrestling and striking, faces Evloev, whose takedown-heavy style has made him a formidable force in the featherweight division.

Sterling, a former bantamweight champion, has showcased his versatility, with a notable 5.6 takedowns per five minutes. Though Evloev has a slightly higher takedown rate (6.1), Sterling’s striking prowess often goes overlooked. His ability to create chaos in the octagon with volume makes him a dangerous opponent. Over the years, Sterling has proven himself against high-level competition, with his only loss since 2017 coming in a fight he was controlling.

Evloev, however, is known for his exceptional grappling, with an 89% control rate compared to Sterling’s 65%. But the key factor here is the quality of competition. Evloev has yet to face an opponent with Sterling’s wrestling pedigree and experience. With the weight class shift to 145 pounds, Sterling’s cardio and strength have improved, and he could prove to be too much for Evloev, especially in close grappling exchanges.

Sterling is a slight underdog in this bout, but there is value in his moneyline, especially at +200. Betting on Sterling’s decision prop (projected at +289, listed at +350)

Pick: Aljamain Sterling +200 (Caesars)

2. Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin

In another exciting preliminary bout, Michael Chiesa takes on Max Griffin. Chiesa, who has recently faced criticism for his part-time broadcasting career and inconsistent performances, finds himself as an underdog against Griffin. Despite Chiesa’s recent struggles, his grappling skills and wrestling could be the key to victory in this matchup.

Griffin, at 39 years old, has been in his fair share of close fights, with his most recent victory being a controversial split decision over Jeremiah Wells. Chiesa, on the other hand, has a more well-rounded skill set and has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. Though Chiesa is 1-3 over his last four, his win against Tony Ferguson, despite Ferguson’s decline, shows he still has what it takes to compete.

While Griffin is a slight favorite, his age and questionable recent performances make him a risky bet. Chiesa, at +100, offers good value, especially considering the recent market movements toward his line. If you can get Chiesa at +100, it’s a worthwhile investment.

Pick: Michael Chiesa ML +100 (BetWay)

3. Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle

Randy Brown faces Bryan Battle in what promises to be an exciting welterweight clash. Battle, a 6-1 prospect in the UFC, enters the fight off the back of a Performance of the Night bonus. However, he comes into this matchup with some controversy, including a significant weight miss during the weigh-ins. Battle came in four pounds over the limit, which raises questions about his readiness for the fight.

Brown, a seasoned veteran, boasts a 6’3” frame with a 78-inch reach. His striking and movement from the outside will be key in neutralizing Battle’s forward pressure. Brown has won three consecutive fights and seven of his last eight, demonstrating that he is still a highly competitive force in the division.

Battle has shown flashes of brilliance, but his recent weight issues and short turnaround between fights make him a risky bet. Brown, with his experience and superior physical attributes, looks to be the more reliable choice. The +164 price on Brown is appealing, especially considering the uncertain state of Battle’s preparation.

Pick: Randy Brown +164 (FanDuel)

4. Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

The main event of UFC 310 features the flyweight title fight between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Kai Asakura. Asakura, who earned his title shot following a standout career in Rizin, is looking to prove himself on the big stage against Pantoja, a fighter who has already defeated several top-ranked opponents.

Pantoja’s path to the title has been anything but easy. His victories over Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno solidified his place as the best flyweight in the division, but those fights weren’t easy, with all three of his title bouts going to decisions. Pantoja is a grappling-heavy fighter, and his submission skills make him a threat on the ground. However, his occasional struggles with cardio could allow Asakura to capitalize on a late-round surge.

Asakura, who has never been submitted, is known for his strong defensive grappling. While Pantoja is the better grappler overall, Asakura’s ability to defend submissions gives him a shot at securing at least one round, making the +9.5 point spread an attractive option for bettors. Given Pantoja’s lack of knockout power and Asakura’s durability, this fight could go the distance.

Pick: Kai Asakura +9.5 (+105 DraftKings)

As UFC 310 approaches, there are plenty of intriguing matchups to consider for your betting strategy. Whether it’s the wrestling-heavy clash between Sterling and Evloev, the veteran battle between Chiesa and Griffin, or the flyweight title fight between Pantoja and Asakura, this card offers diverse opportunities for bettors. Keep an eye on these fights, as our expert picks and analysis should help guide your decisions in making informed wagers on one of the most exciting events of the year.